An Azerbaijani passenger plane that crashed in Kazakhstan, claiming 38 lives out of the 67 people onboard, may have been brought down by Russian air defense systems, according to aviation experts.
The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 was traveling from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, when it was diverted under unclear circumstances. The aircraft attempted to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after crossing the Caspian Sea but crashed near the coastline, approximately 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Aktau.
Cellphone footage shared online captured the plane’s steep descent before it struck the ground and erupted into flames. Emergency responders rushed 29 survivors to local hospitals for treatment.
Azerbaijan declared a nationwide day of mourning on Thursday to honor the victims. Flags were flown at half-mast, and a moment of silence was observed at noon, marked by sirens from ships and trains across the country.
Speaking at a press briefing, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attributed the diversion to adverse weather conditions.
Authorities from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia have launched investigations into the crash, with Embraer, the aircraft’s manufacturer, pledging full cooperation.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, initially cited a bird strike as the likely cause of the emergency that led to the diversion. However, some experts and officials have pointed to more alarming possibilities.
- Potential Missile Strike
Azerbaijani lawmaker Rasim Musabekov suggested the plane was targeted by Russian air defenses near Grozny, calling for an official apology from Moscow.
Aviation experts have noted damage to the aircraft’s tail section consistent with shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile. Mark Zee of OPSGroup, an aviation risk monitoring organization, assessed a 90-99% likelihood that the crash resulted from such an attack.
Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security firm, issued a warning to its clients, asserting that the aircraft was “likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” The company highlighted Russia’s extensive use of jamming technology to counter drone threats, which may have also interfered with the plane’s GPS systems.
- Technical and Strategic Questions
Flight tracking service FlightRadar24 reported “strong GPS jamming” during the aircraft’s flight, aligning with reports of Russia deploying sophisticated jamming equipment. Independent Russian military analyst Yan Matveyev further noted that damage to the plane’s tail matched fragments from a Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
Speculation has also arisen about the pilot’s decision to cross the Caspian Sea rather than attempting an emergency landing at a closer Russian airport. Experts suggest this may have been due to perceived damage severity or restricted landing permissions.
The Kremlin has refrained from commenting on the allegations. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged patience, stating, “It would be wrong to speculate before the investigation concludes.” Officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly deferred judgment pending official findings.
Media outlets in Azerbaijan have questioned Russia’s handling of the situation, including why airports in Grozny and nearby regions were not closed during reported drone activity and why the damaged aircraft was not allowed to land closer to its original route.
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For now Azerbaijani’s mourn, while the cause of the tragic crash remains under investigation, with families and nations seeking answers. According to apnews
