Amid ongoing instability in West Africa, concerns are mounting over Niger Republic’s suspected withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a key regional military alliance formed to combat terrorism in the Lake Chad Basin. Security analysts warn that this development may unravel years of progress made against Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgents.
Commenting on the unfolding situation, a prominent strategic affairs scholar at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Dr. Joshua Bolarinwa, emphasized that Niger’s retreat—while unsurprising given recent political tensions—could deal a significant blow to the multinational campaign.
“The MNJTF has evolved since its inception in 1998 and formal activation in 2015 to address cross-border insurgency threats. Its coordinated offensives have substantially weakened Boko Haram’s influence in the region,” Bolarinwa explained in a recent commentary on social media.
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With over 10,000 personnel drawn from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Benin, the MNJTF has carried out several successful missions, including the liberation of towns, rescue of civilians, recovery of arms, and the destruction of extremist training camps. These efforts earned global recognition, including from the United Nations’ political affairs division.
Fallout from Regional Sanctions.
Bolarinwa attributed Niger’s military disengagement to political fallout following the July 2023 coup, which led to ECOWAS sanctions and threats of military action. While General Abdourahamane Tchiani, head of Niger’s military junta, denies any official exit, field reports suggest a visible withdrawal of Nigerien forces from some strategic border positions.
Niger is surrounded by seven countries and shares its longest border—over 1,600 km—with Nigeria. This geographic reality has made Niger a crucial partner in joint security and counter-terrorism operations across the Sahel.
Heightened Terror Risks on Border Communities.
Experts warn that the absence of Niger’s contribution to the MNJTF could trigger a resurgence of violence. With fewer troops manning porous borders, insurgent factions may exploit the vacuum to re-establish routes for arms smuggling and cross-border raids.
“Border communities like Gaidam, Mallam Fatori, and Damasak have already begun experiencing heightened threats due to the weakening of military presence,” Bolarinwa noted, warning of increased movement by foreign militants and weapons from the Sahel and North Africa.
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He added that if not addressed swiftly, this shift may undermine hard-won gains, reverse the MNJTF’s momentum, and increase regional insecurity.
Urgent Call for Regional Re-engagement.
The apparent fracture in MNJTF operations highlights the urgent need for renewed diplomacy and strengthened alliances. Security observers argue that the regional bloc must intensify dialogue with Niger’s current leadership to encourage its full re-engagement in joint efforts.
Strengthening Regional Security in the Face of Emerging Threats.
Niger’s uncertain commitment to the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) underscores the fragile nature of security cooperation in West Africa. As insurgent groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP seek to exploit gaps along the Nigeria-Niger border, regional stability hangs in the balance. The Lake Chad Basin, already a hotspot for extremist activity, now faces renewed risks of cross-border terrorism, arms trafficking, and militant resurgence.
To sustain the hard-won gains in counter-insurgency, regional powers must urgently bolster diplomatic efforts, encourage Niger’s reintegration into joint security frameworks, and reinforce border patrols. Without unified military collaboration, the prospects for peace and long-term counter-terrorism success in the Sahel region could rapidly deteriorate.
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Reaffirming Niger’s role within the MNJTF and revitalizing multilateral engagement remain critical to defeating terrorism in West Africa and securing the Lake Chad Basin for future generations.