The World Bank has forecasted a troubling rise in poverty across Nigeria over the next five years, projecting an increase of 3.6 percentage points by 2027. This projection, outlined in the Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report, was released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C.
The report presents a stark outlook for poverty reduction in Nigeria, despite modest economic improvements, particularly in the non-oil sector during the final quarter of 2024. It identifies persistent structural challenges—such as overreliance on natural resources and national fragility—as significant impediments to long-term progress.
“Nigeria, along with other resource-rich and fragile economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to see worsening poverty trends, contrary to the trajectory observed in non-resource-dependent countries,” the report states.
According to the data, poverty in nations like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo is set to rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027. This is in sharp contrast to more diversified economies in the region, which are projected to achieve more rapid reductions in poverty.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains home to the highest rate of extreme poverty globally. In 2024, the region accounted for 80% of the world’s 695 million people living in extreme poverty. Of the 560 million extremely poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa, half resided in just four countries.
By comparison, South Asia made up 8% of the global extreme poor population, while East Asia and the Pacific represented 2%. The Middle East and North Africa accounted for 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean for 3%.
The report notes that countries heavily reliant on resource exports continue to struggle, in part due to declining oil prices and fragile fiscal systems. In contrast, non-resource-rich countries are benefiting from elevated agricultural commodity prices, which are fueling economic growth even amid fiscal constraints.
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“This trend reinforces a longstanding pattern where natural resource wealth, when combined with political fragility or conflict, correlates with some of the world’s highest poverty rates,” the World Bank observed. It estimated that poverty in fragile, resource-rich countries averaged 46% in 2024—13 percentage points higher than in more stable resource-based economies.
In response to these findings, the World Bank urged governments like Nigeria’s to strengthen public financial management and establish a more robust fiscal contract with citizens. Such measures, the report suggests, are essential to fostering inclusive economic development and reversing the upward trajectory of poverty.
