Barely six months after Kemi Badenoch took the helm of the UK Conservative Party, discontent is already bubbling within her ranks. With local elections looming and the Tories bracing for heavy losses across England, internal discussions are increasingly centered on whether Badenoch should be replaced ahead of the next general election.
According to more than two dozen Conservative MPs and officials who spoke to Bloomberg under anonymity, the consensus is growing that Badenoch — elected leader on November 2 — may not be the right figure to lead the party into the future. Many now view Robert Jenrick, the hardline shadow justice secretary, as a potential successor.
Badenoch’s critics argue her tenure has been marred by poor strategic choices and a disconnect with voter priorities, leaving the party vulnerable to Nigel Farage’s surging Reform Party. While a spokesperson for Badenoch declined to comment, Jenrick, through a recent GB News interview, publicly voiced support for the embattled leader, urging colleagues to “give her a break.”
The scale of the challenge facing Badenoch will become clearer following Thursday’s local elections. The councils being contested were last fought during Boris Johnson’s high point in 2021, buoyed by the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Since then, Conservative fortunes have plummeted, culminating in their worst general election performance in history last July.
“It’s set to be catastrophic,” said Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “To decline from a historic low just months after taking charge is nothing short of disastrous.”
Once briefly ahead of Labour in Bloomberg’s composite polling in December, the Conservatives have since lost ground, now trailing both Labour and Reform by two percentage points. Although insiders initially believed Badenoch would be given until 2026 to reverse the party’s decline, some now believe her position could become untenable much sooner.
One senior Tory figure described Badenoch as having entered the “political death zone,” with MPs and donors already speculating about her successor.
Badenoch’s rise to leadership followed a punishing defeat for Rishi Sunak’s government, ending 14 years of Conservative rule overshadowed by political instability and economic woes. Analysts, however, say Badenoch’s struggle to broaden the party’s appeal, even among traditional loyalists, underscores deeper problems.
“Kemi is barely maintaining support among the party’s base from 2024,” noted Scarlett Maguire, founder of polling firm Merlin Strategy. “Many believe 2024 was the bottom, but worse may yet come.”
While Badenoch recently scored a symbolic legal win on biological sex definitions — an issue she has championed — such victories have done little to stem broader dissatisfaction. Frustrations are mounting within Conservative headquarters, where staff face layoffs and major donors are reconsidering their support.
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Critics also fault Badenoch’s political instincts, accusing her of focusing too much on cultural issues like net zero policies and transgender rights, instead of more pressing concerns such as crime and immigration. Her lackluster performances at Prime Minister’s Questions have further dented confidence, as Labour leader Keir Starmer repeatedly outmaneuvered her in the Commons.
The party’s deeper anxiety, however, revolves around the meteoric rise of Farage’s Reform Party. Tory insiders warn that Badenoch’s positioning — too conservative for moderates, yet not hardline enough to counter Farage — risks alienating both ends of the party’s traditional base.
Meanwhile, Robert Jenrick is increasingly seen as a figure around whom disillusioned Conservatives are coalescing. Once a centrist, Jenrick shifted to the right after his stint at the Home Office, building his profile through campaigns on crime, immigration, and sovereignty issues. His energetic performances have reportedly energized younger Conservative activists and united factions of the party’s right wing.
According to ConservativeHome’s influential membership survey, Jenrick boasts the highest net satisfaction rating in the shadow cabinet at +71 points, compared to Badenoch’s modest +9.
Nonetheless, the prospect of replacing Badenoch with Jenrick is not universally welcomed. Some centrist Tories warn that shifting further right could alienate swing voters and reinforce perceptions that the party is fractured and adrift. After cycling through five leaders in 14 years, another leadership upheaval could deepen voter skepticism about the Conservatives’ readiness to govern.
Badenoch’s allies point to Keir Starmer’s early struggles as a glimmer of hope. Starmer, too, faced calls to resign after disastrous local elections in 2021, only to later lead Labour to historic gains.
For now, Badenoch’s survival may depend less on a Conservative revival and more on how the narrative unfolds post-election. “If the media focuses on Farage’s gains rather than Tory losses, it could buy Badenoch crucial time,” said Ford.
Whether that respite will be enough to stabilize her leadership remains to be seen.
